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傅传杰为什么中国房价这么高 普通人在大城市买

  Why is the housing price so high in China? How many decades does it take for common people in China to buy an apartment in the big cities of China?

  为什么中国的房价这么高?普通老百姓在大城市买一套房子要花多少年?

  Quora评论翻译:

  Anne, lives in Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand

  I would like to know the reason as well. That is something go nment can’t explain, economist can ’t explain, and everybody can tell but nobody can tell why.

  There are some widely spread reasons that most of people agree with:

  我也想知道原因。这是政府和经济学家都无法解释,每个人都看得出来,但却没人能解释为什么。

  以下是大多数人同意的,也是广为传播的一些原因:

  1stPeople lives in countryside wants to move to city, people who lives in small city(1m population) wants to move to big city(8m population), people who lives in big city wants to move to super city(beijing, shanghai, guangzhou, shenzhen);

  住在农村的人想搬到城市,住在小城市(100万人口)的人想搬到大城市(800万人口),住在大城市的人想搬到特大城市(北京、上海、广州、深圳);

  2ndThe house or apartment near a good school(primary school, intermediate school, high school) is limited, and if you not living in the school zone, your children can’t enter that school.

  好学校(小学、初中、高中)附近的房子或公寓是有限的。如果你买学区房,你的孩子就进不了那所学校。

  3rdGood schools are limited as well. and if you can’t enter a good high school, you could hardly get a high score in the university entrance exam(gaokao) to meet their requirements.

  好学校也是有限的。如果你不能进入一所好的高中,高考就很难考出高分,考不出高分就很难进入好的大学。

  4thRich person buy more house and get richer, poor person can’t afford their first house and become poorer. Decades and decades, 80% resource is occupied by 20% person, in China, the gap is even worse.

  富人有能力买更多的房子从而变得更富有,而穷人一套房子都买不起,只会变得更穷。几十年来,80%的资源被20%的人所占据。在中国,这种差距越来越大。

  5thI can’t think of any reason else.

  除此之外,我想不出其他原因了。

  来源:三泰虎 译者:Jessica.Wu

  Parsley Only, dont judge

  Before my answer starts, what I want to show you guys firstly is that I’m not professional at all in my English and the price of the house. This is just a trying for me to organize my words in English.

  在回答之前,我想先告诉你们,我英语不太好,对房价也不甚专业。这只是我用英语组织语言的一种尝试。

  1stOne guy who earns a average salary wouldnt buy a house in the cities you said.(if on self efforts only) During my college times, I almost was a Beijinger for 4 years and now I work for a company in Hangzhou, that some of my colleagues(superiors may be more suitable) bought one or more house in Hangzhou. And those guys I know who bought a house earns at least twice of the average.

  拿普通工资的人一般不会在城里买房子。在大学期间,我在北京呆了4年,现在在杭州的一家公司工作,我的一些同事(确实的说是上司)在杭州买了一套或多套房子。我所认识的买了房的人,他们的收入至少是平均水平的两倍。

  2ndWhat is really pensive not the house itself, but the land where the house lies in . In China, only the go nment has the ownership of land. In cities or town, who wants to use the land must pay for rent. But in countryside, people dont need to pay for the land where houses lies in. There is a local name for the kind of land named “zhai ji di”.But the cities have better conditions for education, medical treatment, jobs and convenient life than a village.

  真正昂贵的不是房子本身,而是建房子的土地。在中国,只有政府拥有土地所有权。在城市或城镇,想使用土地必须支付租金。但是在农村,人们不需要为建房土地掏钱。这类土地叫作“宅基地”。但是城市比乡村有更好的教育、傅传杰医疗、工作条件以及便利的生活条件。

  Ian Flanagan, Beijing Office Market Research Analyst (2016-present)

  Originally Answered: Why does China have a high housing price?

  I agree mostly with Sean’s answer and add a few points:

  我基本上同意Sean的回答,下面再补充几点:

  There is no property tax for residential properties in China (in the UK it’s called council tax). This means there is no annual fee for owning a property, and this encourages richer people to buy more properties for investment. Though there has long been a push for this tax to be introduced (and limited test cases Shanghai and Chengdu), I can’t see it happening within the next 5 years, due to thedifficulties of registering and valuing all residential properties.

  在中国,住宅房产不征收房产税(在英国,这被称为市政税)。这意味着拥有房产不需要缴纳年费,这鼓励了富人购买更多的房产进行投资。虽然长期以来一直有人在推动征收房产税(上海和成都的试点案例也有限),但由于登记和评估所有住宅房产的困难,我认为在未来5年内不会征收房产税。

  Looking over the public asset class returns over the last few decades (say 40 years), real estate has been the only one to beat inflation. If you fully invested in anything else, you would have actually lost purchasing power. This has left a very powerful impression on private (and to a lesser extent institutional) investors, who expect capital value growth to continue for a long time.

  回顾过去几十年(比如40年)的公共资产类别回报率,房地产是唯一一个能够战胜通胀的。如果你全部投资在其它方面,你就会失去购买力。这给私人投资者留下了非常强烈的印象,他们预计资本价值的增长将持续很长一段时间。

  By some estimates, 50% of Chinese people still live in the countryside. There are still huge migration forces still to come, with Tier 1 cities high on people’s list of destinations. Many cities are already reaching unmanageable,sprawling sizes, with limited land supply for new housing. There is no way this can meet the huge demand from people hoping to move to big cities.

  据估计,50%的中国人仍然生活在农村。中国仍有巨大的移民大军,一线城市在人们的目的地名单上名列前茅。许多城市已经达到了难以管理的庞大规模,新住房的土地供应有限,这无法满足希望搬到大城市的人们的巨大需求。

  I would also add that China is a huge and diverse place, and it’s meaningless to talk about a single house price for the whole country. Just be aware that this question (and answers) apply mostly to housing in the Tier 1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen), where supply is limit and demand is strongest.

  我还想补充一点,中国是一个辽阔而多元的地方,谈论整个国家的房价是没有意义的。要知道,这个问题(和答案)主要适用于一线城市(北京、上海、广东、深圳)的住房,在这些城市,供应是有限的,需求是最大的。

  In one way of looking at it, the house price in Beijing is not as high as it really should be by market forces. There are sweeping restrictions on purchasing: e.g. you must live in and paid tax in Beijing to be eligable to buy; second residence purchases are strong restricted; minimum down-payments for mortgages have been increased. These are all controls that the go nment can tweak to control how much real demand actually reaches the market.

  从某种角度看,北京的房价并没有达到市场力量所左右的那么高。对购买有很多限制:例如,你必须住在北京生活,并在北京交税才有资格买房;住宅购置受到严格限制;抵押贷款的最低首付已经提高。这些都是政府的控制措施,以控制实际需求。

  Chris Garcia, Executive Management (1990-present)

  You dont have the complete picture.

  In the three major cities of Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai property prices are extremely high. First of all, why? Although the issue is supply and demand, theres more to it. Look at Beijing, for example. There is plenty of undeveloped land that can be used for residential purposes, but land supply is controlled directly by the go nment. The prime source of go nment revenue is the income generated from go nment lease (land is never sold) of land to developers. To ensure go nment coffers stay full, the go nment restricts the release of land for development.

  在广州、北京和上海这三个主要城市,房价都非常高。为什么呢?尽管问题在于供求关系,但却不止于此。以北京为例,有很多未开发的土地可以用于开发住宅的,但土地供应是由政府直接控制的。政府收入的主要来源是将土地出租(土地从不出售)给开发商。为了保证政府资金的充足,政府限制了开发用地的审批。

  Another issue is property speculation. Chinese like to save. Banks, however, pay low interest while the stock market is only for fools. People invest in property knowing the returns are substantial. It is extremely common for monied individuals to buy more than one property for investment purposes thus restricting housing supply even further.

  另一个问题是房地产投机。中国人喜欢存钱,然而,银行支付的利息很低,而进股市的都是傻瓜。人们知道投资房地产的回报是可观的。对于有钱人来说,为了投资而购买多处房产是非常普遍的,因此使得住房供应更加紧张。

  Population. People from rural and lesser developed cities flock to bigger cities — especially the Big Three — for the economic and educational advantages unfound in their hometown. These people can increase the population of a city by 100% or more. This creates housing strain.

  人口。来自农村和欠发达城市的人们涌向大城市——尤其是北上广——因为他们的家乡不具备经济和教育优势。这些人可以使城市人口翻番甚至更多,进而造成了住房紧张。

  So how do people buy houses? Its not as difficult as you think. First of all, your numbers are far off. In Beijing, nearer the center of the city housing prices are roughly 70,000 RMB per m2. When you get further outside they can decrease to about 50,000 RMB until you get on the fringes of the city and they might be as low as 40,000 RMB. The median salary in Beijing is approximately 6,500 RMB per month. The vast majority of families, unlike in the US, have two wage-earners. The household income of 13,000 RMB would be used to qualify for a mortgage. Unless it has changed recently, a 30% cash downpayment is generally required. To obtain this downpayment people pull in money from their savings (remember, Chinese are savers) and from their parents / in-laws. Another source is the money they have accumulated in their mandatory salary deductions for housing.

  那么人们是如何买房的呢?这并不像你想的那么难。在北京,靠近城市中心的房价大约是7万/平。离市中心远一些的地方,可以降到大约5万/平。到达城市边缘,可能会减少降到4万/平。北京的平均工资大约是6500元/月。与美国不同的是,绝大多数家庭都有两名工薪阶层,这样就有13000元的家庭收入用于偿还抵押贷款。除非最近有变动,首付一般需要付30%。为了筹首付款,人们会动用积蓄(中国人爱存钱)和向他们的父母/姻亲拿钱,还有就是公积金。

  Chinese houses are generally small. On average, for a family of 5 (husband, wife, child, two grandparents), the house would be about 70 m2 and cost roughly 2,800,000 RMB ($406,000). They need to finance an amount equal to about 13 years of salary. Its a struggle, but the main expense is housing. Food and transportation is very cheap. Medical care is relatively cheap. Schooling can be inexpensive, too. With a housing payment of 10,000 RMB per month, they can still survive.

  中国的房子面积一般都很小。平均而言,一个5口之家(丈夫、妻子、孩子、祖父母)的住房面积约为70平方米,价格约为280万元人民币(合406000美元),大致相当于13年的工资。日子可能不好过,但主要支出就是住房。食物和交通都很便宜,医疗相对便宜,上学也不贵。每个月支付1万按揭款,他们仍然可以生存。

  If you crunch the numbers, if both spouses only earn 6,500 RMB per month, they are doomed as far as home ownership. One would have to earn quite a bit more.

  如果夫妻双方每个月的收入都只有6500元人民币,要买房就太难了,必须赚得更多才行。